27 Sept · 16:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JD
🇨🇿Jaroslav Dohnal
ELO 1478
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Muller
RM
🇨🇿Radek Muller
ELO 1489
FormWLLWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dohnal🌟Muller rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (57)
Fair odds · Muller
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H21-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.