27 Sept · 21:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SK
🇨🇿Stanislav Kafka
ELO 1598
FormWWLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kafka
DH
🇨🇿David Hons
ELO 1513
FormLLLWL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Kafka
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+85
H2H6-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+85)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)