27 Sept · 21:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1502
FormWLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Zivny
PZ
🇨🇿Petr Zivny
ELO 1503
FormLLLLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Zivny
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 34% · 2.90· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+1
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.