27 Sept · 20:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PZ
🇨🇿Petr Zivny
ELO 1503
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Hons
DH
🇨🇿David Hons
ELO 1513
FormLLLWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Hons
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.25· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H2-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.