27 Sept · 21:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stusek
ELO 1654
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stusek
TV
🇨🇿Tomas Vorisek
ELO 1646
FormWLLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Stusek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H164-193
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.