27 Sept · 18:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇨🇿Michal Prochazka
ELO 1657
FormWWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Benak
JB
🇨🇿Jan Benak
ELO 1700
FormLWWWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Prochazka🌟Prochazka covers set handicap as underdog 78% (46)
Fair odds · Benak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.