27 Sept · 20:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1485
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jr
MD
🇨🇿Miroslav Dolezal
ELO 1442
FormLLWWW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Jr
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.