28 Sept · 10:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JH
🇨🇿Jakub Hitzger
ELO 1681
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Hitzger
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Polak
ELO 1669
FormWWLWL
51%
49%
🌟Polak covers set handicap as underdog 65% (17)
Fair odds · Hitzger
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H5-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.