28 Sept · 08:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Polak
ELO 1669
FormWWLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Polak
MM
🇨🇿Martin Mastera
ELO 1587
FormLWLLW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Polak
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~74 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+82
H2H12-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-8)