28 Sept · 10:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AJ
🇨🇿Ales Brandtl Jr
ELO 1518
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Rek
LR
🇨🇿Lukas Dominik Rek
ELO 1548
FormWWWWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Rek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H10-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.