28 Sept · 12:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TT
🇨🇿Tomas Trnka
ELO 1553
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Trnka
DH
🇨🇿David Hons
ELO 1536
FormWWLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Trnka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H11-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.