28 Sept · 14:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1509
FormWLWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Benes
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kanak
ELO 1507
FormLLLLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kanak🌟Kanak covers set handicap as underdog 75% (51)
Fair odds · Benes
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+2
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.