28 Sept · 14:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DB
🇨🇿David Bochnak
ELO 1745
FormWWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Bochnak
PV
🇨🇿Petr Vanek
ELO 1715
FormWWLLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vanek🌟Vanek covers set handicap as underdog 75% (63)
Fair odds · Bochnak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H67-39
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.