28 Sept · 14:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1492
FormLLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Hons
DH
🇨🇿David Hons
ELO 1540
FormWWWLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Hons
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 72% · 1.38· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H9-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.