28 Sept · 14:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TT
🇨🇿Tomas Trnka
ELO 1553
FormWLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Ruzicka
JR
🇨🇿Jan Ruzicka
ELO 1599
FormLWWLW
46%
54%
🌟Trnka goes over total as underdog 69% (35)
Fair odds · Ruzicka
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H11-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.