28 Sept · 13:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PV
🇨🇿Petr Vanek
ELO 1715
FormWWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Cerny
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1764
FormLWWWL
46%
54%
🌟Vanek covers set handicap as underdog 75% (63)
Fair odds · Cerny
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H21-31
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.