28 Sept · 10:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TJ
🇨🇿Tomas Cerveny Jr
ELO 1522
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Rek
LR
🇨🇿Lukas Dominik Rek
ELO 1548
FormWWWWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Rek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H7-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.