28 Sept · 07:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OC
🇨🇿Ondrej Coufal
ELO 1467
FormWLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Chvojka
PC
🇨🇿Peter Chvojka
ELO 1497
FormWWLLL
47%
53%
🌟Chvojka rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (59)
Fair odds · Chvojka
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~72 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.