28 Sept · 16:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1522
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Flesar
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1472
FormWLWWL
54%
46%
🌟Flesar stays under total as favourite 62% (45)
Fair odds · Flesar
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H31-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.