28 Sept · 17:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FC
🇨🇿Frantisek Chaloupka
ELO 1597
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mrowetz
BM
🇨🇿Bruno Mrowetz
ELO 1617
FormLLLWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chaloupka🌟Chaloupka covers set handicap as underdog 62% (90)
Fair odds · Mrowetz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H6-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.