28 Sept · 16:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BM
🇨🇿Bruno Mrowetz
ELO 1617
FormLLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mrowetz
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1588
FormLLLWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krupnik🌟Krupnik covers set handicap as underdog 67% (100)
Fair odds · Mrowetz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H18-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.