28 Sept · 19:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1587
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gembala
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1557
FormWLLLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Gembala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (102)
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.