28 Sept · 17:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RN
🇨🇿Radek Neterda
ELO 1550
FormWWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Neterda
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1472
FormWLWWL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Neterda
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+78
H2H10-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-8)