28 Sept · 17:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1489
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Benes
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1517
FormLWWWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pawlik🌟Benes rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (143)
Fair odds · Benes
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H12-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.