29 Sept · 11:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AD
🇨🇿Ales Drozd
ELO 1480
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vaclahovsky
OV
🇨🇿Oldrich Vaclahovsky
ELO 1496
FormWWLWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Drozd🌟Drozd covers set handicap as underdog 67% (39)
Fair odds · Vaclahovsky
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H3-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.