29 Sept · 10:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobota
ELO 1379
FormLLLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Zajac
RZ
🇨🇿Radek Zajac
ELO 1446
FormLWLWW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Zajac
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+67
H2H0-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)