29 Sept · 09:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1465
FormLLLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Heuman
IH
🇨🇿Ivan Heuman
ELO 1523
FormLLWLL
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pawlik🌟Heuman rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (64)
Fair odds · Heuman
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+58
H2H4-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-2)