29 Sept · 09:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1524
FormWWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Matus
DS
🇨🇿Dominik Stefek
ELO 1447
FormLLWWW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stefek🌟Stefek covers set handicap as underdog 67% (49)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+77
H2H3-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+77)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-0)