29 Sept · 10:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JS
🇨🇿Jan Srnka
ELO 1593
FormWLLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Srnka
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1527
FormLLWWL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Filipek🌟Filipek goes over total as underdog 64% (160)
Fair odds · Srnka
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 60% · 1.67· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+66
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)