29 Sept · 10:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1483
FormLWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Filipek
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1527
FormLLWWL
46%
54%
🌟Kral goes over total as underdog 70% (172)
Fair odds · Filipek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 57% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H48-41
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.