29 Sept · 12:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FB
🇨🇿Frantisek Balcar
ELO 1472
FormWLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Balcar
LM
🇨🇿Ladislav Moravec
ELO 1422
FormLLWLL
54%
46%
🌟Balcar rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (37)
Fair odds · Balcar
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~81 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.