29 Sept · 13:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AD
🇨🇿Ales Drozd
ELO 1480
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Drozd
MK
🇨🇿Miroslav Kliment
ELO 1463
FormWLLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Drozd
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.