29 Sept · 10:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1544
FormWLWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Benes
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1465
FormLLLLL
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pawlik🌟Benes rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (145)
Fair odds · Benes
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 55% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+79
H2H13-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+79)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-9)