29 Sept · 16:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TT
🇨🇿Tomas Trnka
ELO 1551
FormWLLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Ruzicka
JR
🇨🇿Jan Ruzicka
ELO 1620
FormWWWLW
44%
56%
🌟Trnka goes over total as underdog 67% (36)
Fair odds · Ruzicka
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+69
H2H12-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-10)