30 Sept · 18:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LZ
🇨🇿Lukas Zustina
ELO 1436
FormWWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Zustina
JL
🇨🇿Jakub Lysek
ELO 1413
FormLLWWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lysek🌟Zustina rarely covers set handicap as favourite 16% (31)
Fair odds · Zustina
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.