30 Sept · 18:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇨🇿Martin Mastera
ELO 1617
FormWWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mastera
T2
🇨🇿Tomas Beran 2000
ELO 1578
FormWWWLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · 2000🌟Mastera rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (19)
Fair odds · Mastera
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H5-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.