30 Sept · 19:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JV
🇨🇿Jiri Volek
ELO 1494
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Volek
JC
🇨🇿Jiri Cerny
ELO 1481
FormLWWWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Volek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~83 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H4-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.