30 Sept · 18:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FK
🇨🇿Filip Karel
ELO 1658
FormLLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Karel
TB
🇨🇿Tomas Bartik
ELO 1630
FormLLLWL
52%
48%
🌟Karel rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (40)
Fair odds · Karel
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 48% · 2.10· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H10-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.