30 Sept · 17:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1666
FormLWLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Benes
PD
🇨🇿Petr Dvorak
ELO 1602
FormWWWWL
55%
45%
🌟Dvorak stays under total as underdog 67% (12)
Fair odds · Benes
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 52% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+64
H2H8-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-2)