30 Sept · 18:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇨🇿Michal Brozek
ELO 1663
FormWWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Brozek
PD
🇨🇿Petr Dvorak
ELO 1602
FormWWWWL
55%
45%
🌟Dvorak stays under total as underdog 67% (12)
Fair odds · Brozek
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~72 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+61
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)