1 Oct · 12:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PC
🇨🇿Pavel Chvatal
ELO 1583
FormWWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Chvatal
RN
🇨🇿Radek Neterda
ELO 1559
FormWWWLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Neterda🌟Neterda covers set handicap as underdog 69% (58)
Fair odds · Chvatal
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H16-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.