1 Oct · 17:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TJ
🇨🇿Tomas Cerveny Jr
ELO 1536
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Zelezny
DZ
🇨🇿Daniel Zelezny
ELO 1564
FormWWWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Zelezny
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H7-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.