1 Oct · 17:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JM
🇨🇿Jirasek Martin
ELO 1549
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Martin
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Krcil
ELO 1533
FormWLWWW
51%
49%
🌟Krcil covers set handicap as underdog 65% (23)
Fair odds · Martin
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.