2 Oct · 07:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlad
ELO 1491
FormWLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Matus
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1535
FormWLWWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chlad🌟Matus rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (85)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H4-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.