2 Oct · 09:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JB
🇨🇿Jan Benak
ELO 1685
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Nadvornik
VN
🇨🇿Vaclav Nadvornik
ELO 1700
FormWLWLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Benak🌟Nadvornik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (37)
Fair odds · Nadvornik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H10-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.