2 Oct · 10:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kocab
ELO 1660
FormLLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Brozek
MB
🇨🇿Michal Brozek
ELO 1662
FormWLWWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Brozek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+2
H2H9-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.