2 Oct · 09:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1535
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sindler
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Sindler
ELO 1564
FormWLWWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Matus🌟Matus covers set handicap as underdog 66% (58)
Fair odds · Sindler
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H31-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.