2 Oct · 16:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Melichar
ELO 1533
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Melichar
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1521
FormWLWWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvorak🌟Dvorak covers set handicap as underdog 67% (107)
Fair odds · Melichar
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H8-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.