2 Oct · 19:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1503
FormWWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Dvorak
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1529
FormLWWWW
48%
52%
🌟Dvorak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (64)
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H17-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.