2 Oct · 18:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1487
FormWLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Melichar
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Melichar
ELO 1541
FormWLLLW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kral🌟Kral goes over total as underdog 69% (174)
Fair odds · Melichar
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.69· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+54
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.